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Ocean acidification is unlikely to kill all fish or marine mammals in one global event. Its effects are uneven: changing seawater chemistry can impair some fish’s senses, growth, reproduction, and prey relationships, while whales, dolphins, and seals are usually affected indirectly when acidification changes the abundance, nutrition, or location of their food.
The outcome depends on species, life stage, region, temperature, oxygen, diet, exposure duration, and capacity to acclimate or adapt. Scientists therefore cannot give one defensible percentage decline for all fish or marine mammals caused solely by acidification.
What ocean acidification changes
When the ocean absorbs more atmospheric carbon dioxide, seawater chemistry shifts. pH declines, and the concentration of carbonate ions—the building material used by many shell-forming organisms—also falls. Lower carbonate availability makes it more difficult for organisms such as pteropods, shellfish, corals, and some plankton to build and maintain shells or skeletons.
Fish and marine mammals do not all respond in the same way. Fish are not generally harmed because their bodies dissolve; instead, exposure can affect sensory systems, metabolism, development, behavior, and food supply. Marine mammals usually face the clearest risk through prey and habitat changes rather than from direct contact with more acidic water.
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NOAA Fisheries projected a surface-ocean pH decline of roughly 0.3 to 0.5 units over the next century as ocean carbon-dioxide uptake increases. A pH change is logarithmic, so even apparently small numerical shifts represent substantial chemical change.
How fish can be affected
Behavior and predator detection
NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program identifies altered behavior and reduced predator detection as possible effects in acidified conditions. Sensory changes can influence whether a fish recognizes a predator, locates shelter, chooses habitat, or finds food. NOAA’s education materials use clownfish larvae as an example: under some experimental conditions, larvae were less able to identify and locate suitable settlement habitat.
These findings do not mean every fish will lose its ability to avoid predators. Responses vary among species and experiments, and behavior can depend on exposure duration, temperature, background chemistry, and whether an animal can acclimate.
Otoliths, growth, and development
Otoliths are calcium-carbonate structures in a fish’s inner ear. They help fish maintain balance and detect movement and sound. NOAA reports that acidification can alter otolith formation and the growth of young fish. Effects during the egg and larval stages can matter disproportionately because early survival determines how many individuals reach juvenile and adult populations.
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Egg adhesion and fertilization
Reproduction can be affected through pathways such as egg adhesion or fertilization. NOAA’s North Pacific and Bering Sea forecast resources identify these as possible concerns, but a response observed in one species or spawning environment cannot be generalized to all fish. Timing, local carbonate chemistry, temperature, and parental condition all influence reproductive success.
Prey, habitat, and indirect effects
Many fish are affected without being direct victims of carbonate chemistry. Acidification can reduce or redistribute pteropods, shell-forming zooplankton, and other invertebrates that serve as prey. It can also weaken shell-forming habitat organisms that provide shelter or nursery structure.
A fish population may therefore decline, move, or grow more slowly because its food is less abundant or less nutritious, even when the fish itself tolerates the measured pH. Conversely, a species able to switch prey or move into a favorable area may experience a smaller effect.
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What fishery models show
Responses can differ even among closely related or commercially important fish. In a NOAA National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science model of the California Current, acidification produced strong projected effects on invertebrates but only modest overall effects on the groundfish fishery because groundfish species responded differently to pH change. A modest fishery-wide result does not mean every population was unaffected.
| Fish pathway | Possible consequence | Why the result is not universal |
|---|---|---|
| Sensory and behavioral change | Reduced predator detection, altered habitat choice, or changed feeding behavior | Species, life stage, exposure duration, and other stressors alter the response |
| Otolith and early development | Changes in balance, sound detection, larval growth, or survival | Eggs and larvae can be more sensitive than adults, but sensitivity differs by species |
| Reproduction | Possible changes in fertilization, egg adhesion, or recruitment | Spawning conditions and parental acclimation matter |
| Food-web exposure | Less prey, altered prey quality, or loss of habitat-forming invertebrates | Generalist feeders may switch prey; specialists may have fewer options |
Why whales, dolphins, and seals are usually affected indirectly
Most marine mammals do not build external calcium-carbonate shells. Acidification is therefore not expected to attack a whale’s or seal’s body in the same direct way it can challenge a pteropod shell. Their main exposure route is the food web.
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Prey can decline or move
Pteropods and other calcifying organisms are eaten by fish and, in some ecosystems, by whales and other predators. If these prey become less abundant, shift their range, or provide less energy, a marine mammal may need to travel farther, change diet, spend more energy foraging, or compete more intensely with other predators.
Fish distributions can also change when their own prey and habitat change. A whale, dolphin, or seal that depends on those fish may then encounter altered feeding conditions even if the mammal’s direct physiological tolerance is high.
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Acidification can reorganize plankton communities and other lower-food-web processes. It may also interact with harmful-algal-bloom risks, warming, and low-oxygen events. These combined changes can affect where prey concentrate and how predictable feeding grounds are.
Such pathways are indirect and ecosystem-dependent. A marine mammal population with a broad diet or large range may have more options than one tied to a narrow prey base, a coastal nursery, or a seasonal migration corridor.
What the California Current model found
In the California Current projection, the pelagic community—including marine mammals and seabirds—was much less influenced by future pH than nearshore invertebrates. Some demersal fish experienced stronger indirect effects through prey. This is a result for one modeled ecosystem, not a guarantee that all marine mammals will be lightly affected.
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- Extended Shelf Life: The test strips are packaged in a well-sealed bottle to ensure they remain effective over time. This protects the strips from moisture and other environmental factors, ensuring you have reliable testing materials on hand when needed
- Convenient Use: With this kit, you can test your aquarium water at home without the need to send samples to a lab, saving you both time and money. Enjoy peace of mind knowing your aquarium water is balanced and safe without the stress or extra expense. By identifying potential issues, our fish tank testing kit helps prevent hidden water problems and ensures the safety and well-being of your fish
What happens to marine food webs
Food-web effects can propagate in several directions:
- Calcifiers at the base: Pteropods and other shell-forming plankton may face greater difficulty maintaining shells, changing their abundance or distribution.
- Plankton and invertebrate consumers: Fish and invertebrates that depend on those organisms may lose prey or encounter a changed mix of food.
- Predator redistribution: Fish may move, alter diets, or arrive in different seasons, changing competition and feeding opportunities for marine mammals.
- Habitat changes: Declines in shell-forming or reef-building organisms can remove nursery and refuge areas.
- Compounding stress: Warming, hypoxia, disease, fishing pressure, and harmful algal blooms can amplify or mask acidification effects.
Because these links interact, NOAA states that it is currently impossible to predict exactly how acidification impacts will cascade through the marine food web and alter the overall structure of marine ecosystems.
What the numbers do—and do not—mean
| Figure | Scope and qualification |
|---|---|
| 0.3–0.5 pH units | Projected surface-ocean decline over the next century as ocean carbon-dioxide uptake increases; NOAA Fisheries, 2018 resource. |
| 0.2 pH units | Modeled summer-upwelling decline in the California Current from 2013 to 2063; NOAA NCCOS, 2018 model. |
| $321 billion and nearly 2.3 million jobs | U.S. commercial and recreational fishery sales and employment reported by NOAA for 2022; this describes the sector’s economic scale, not losses caused solely by acidification. |
There is no scientifically defensible single global percentage decline for “fish” or “marine mammals” attributable only to acidification. Projections are tied to particular species, regions, life stages, emissions scenarios, food webs, and model assumptions. A percentage from one fishery or ecosystem should not be presented as a worldwide forecast.
Why species and regions respond differently
Comparisons are most useful when they consider six questions:
- Is exposure direct or prey-mediated? A calcifying prey species may face direct shell-building stress, while a whale may experience a later food-supply effect.
- Which life stage is exposed? Eggs and larvae often have less physiological flexibility than adults.
- How dependent is the animal on calcifying prey or habitat? Specialists generally have fewer alternatives than generalists.
- What other stressors are present? Temperature, oxygen, fishing, disease, and algal blooms can change the outcome.
- Can the population acclimate or adapt? Genetic variation, parental effects, movement, and flexible diets may reduce vulnerability, although their limits are uncertain.
- How strong is the evidence? Laboratory studies reveal mechanisms; field monitoring and ecosystem models show whether those mechanisms scale to real populations and regions.
What can reduce risk
Reducing carbon-dioxide emissions addresses the cause of ongoing acidification. It does not remove the need for local action, because coastal chemistry can vary sharply with upwelling, freshwater inputs, respiration, and nutrient cycles.
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- Protect nursery grounds, forage habitat, and areas that provide refuge from multiple stressors.
- Build species-specific vulnerability into catch limits, seasonal rules, and adaptive fishery management.
- Track marine-mammal body condition, diet, strandings, and foraging locations alongside prey surveys.
- Use laboratory, field, and ecosystem-model evidence together rather than relying on one experiment or one headline percentage.
NOAA’s research program is designed to connect chemistry and biological observations with fishery and ecosystem decisions. The most realistic expectation is uneven change: some fish populations may lose growth or recruitment, some prey may shift, and marine mammals may face changing foraging conditions as food webs reorganize.
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