How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil? NOAA’s latest comparisons do not support treating him as a dependable seasonal forecaster: one reports 30% accuracy over the preceding 10 years, and another lists him at 35% over a 20-year period. A 2021 peer-reviewed study reports 52% under its own criteria, so the scores should be read with their methods and time periods—not combined into a single lifetime rate.
Groundhog Day is a cultural tradition, not a substitute for a local weather forecast. If you need practical weather guidance, check official forecasts and outlooks.
Key takeaways
- The Groundhog Day legend says a shadow on February 2 means six more weeks of winter; no shadow signals an early spring.
- NOAA NCEI reports 30% accuracy in its national-temperature comparison over the preceding 10 years.
- NOAA’s updated 2006–2025 comparison lists Phil at 35%, ranking 17th of 19 prognosticators.
- A 2021 peer-reviewed study reports a 52% success rate for Phil under its criteria; that figure is not directly comparable to NOAA’s scores.
- None of these figures is a settled lifetime accuracy rate. Phil’s forecast is for fun, not a dependable weather forecast.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
There is no single universal accuracy rate for Punxsutawney Phil. NOAA NCEI reports 30% over a recent 10-year national-temperature comparison, NOAA lists him at 35% in its 2006–2025 ranking, and a 2021 peer-reviewed study reports 52% under its own criteria.
Those results measure different things over different periods. They should not be averaged or described as one definitive lifetime score. The practical conclusion is that the published evaluations do not establish Phil as a dependable seasonal forecaster.
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What does Phil’s shadow prediction mean?
According to the Groundhog Day legend, if Phil sees his shadow on February 2, winter continues for six more weeks; if he does not, spring arrives early. NOAA describes this as folklore, not a precise national weather forecast.
“Six more weeks” is not a defined weather metric. Anyone scoring the prediction has to choose what counts as winter or spring, which location to assess, what period to measure, and what temperature baseline to use.
What do the different accuracy figures measure?
The reported percentages come from separate evaluations. NOAA’s comparisons use U.S. temperature averages, while the peer-reviewed study applies its own criteria. The figures are meaningful only alongside the evaluator, time period, geography, and scoring method.
| Reported figure | Source and period | What it tells readers |
|---|---|---|
| 30% | NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), preceding 10 years | A national-temperature comparison with Phil’s forecasts |
| 35%; rank 17 of 19 | NOAA, updated 2006–2025 comparison | A comparison of prognosticator calls with U.S. February and March temperature averages |
| 52% | 2021 peer-reviewed study | Phil’s result under the study’s separate criteria; it cannot be substituted directly for NOAA’s scores |
NOAA’s ranking page also retains an earlier-period table, so check the period label when reading it. NOAA NCEI’s ten-year score and NOAA’s 20-year ranking are distinct comparisons, not competing estimates from one identical test.
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What did Phil predict in 2025, and was it right?
Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter on February 2, 2025. NOAA NCEI judged that forecast wrong under its national-temperature comparison: February’s contiguous-U.S. average was 34.8°F, 1.0°F above the 20th-century average, and March averaged 46.9°F, 5.4°F above that average.
NOAA NCEI reported that March 2025 was the sixth-warmest March in the 131-year record. This is one example scored using NCEI’s approach; it does not by itself settle Phil’s accuracy under other definitions of spring.
What did the peer-reviewed study find?
A 2021 study in Weather, Climate, and Society evaluated groundhog predictions using its own criteria and reports that Punxsutawney Phil was successful 52% of the time. The authors say their work provides a quantitative evaluation of the predictions and emphasize that its result is distinct from claims based on other scoring methods.
The study’s 52% figure should not be read as proof that Phil can reliably forecast spring, nor compared directly with NOAA’s temperature-based scores without aligning the evaluation methods and periods. The study abstract was the available source for this result.
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The authors’ title summarizes their conclusion: “Broadscale Assessment of Groundhog (Marmota monax) Predictions of Spring Onset No Better than Chance.”
How did Phil compare with other prognosticators?
In NOAA’s updated comparison for 2006–2025, Staten Island Chuck ranked first at 85%, while Phil ranked 17th of 19 at 35%. NOAA’s list includes other prognosticators, so it is best read as a playful comparison rather than a controlled test of animal forecasting ability.
| Prognosticator | NOAA comparison result | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Staten Island Chuck | 85% | Highest rate in the updated comparison |
| Punxsutawney Phil | 35% | 17th of 19 in the 2006–2025 comparison |
As NOAA puts it, “These furry critters are usually looked to for fun rather than real forecasts.” For practical decisions, use official weather forecasts and outlooks instead.
Where did Punxsutawney Phil’s tradition come from?
The National Weather Service traces the recorded American belief to a diary entry by Pennsylvania storekeeper James Morris on February 4, 1841. The first Groundhog Day notice in Punxsutawney’s newspaper appeared in 1886, and Phil’s first official prediction followed in 1887.
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The custom is connected to Candlemas folklore. The National Weather Service notes that the spring equinox falls about six weeks after February 2 in the modern calendar, helping explain the traditional saying. NOAA also dates Phil’s official forecasting debut to 1887.
Does seeing Phil’s shadow really mean six more weeks of winter?
No. The shadow is a folklore signal, not a scientifically established way to predict six weeks of weather. Seasonal conditions vary by region, and the saying does not specify a measurable national forecast.
A forecast may happen to match later conditions, but that alone does not demonstrate dependable skill. Evaluators need a defined prediction, location, period, and scoring rule to assess accuracy.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What should I use instead of Phil’s forecast?
For current local conditions, check your local National Weather Service forecast. For longer-term patterns, consult official climate data and outlooks. These sources assess weather and climate directly rather than relying on a shadow tradition.
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Phil’s prediction can still be part of a fun seasonal ritual. It should not guide travel, cold-weather preparation, or other decisions that depend on an actual forecast.
FAQ
What did Punxsutawney Phil predict in 2025?
On February 2, 2025, Phil saw his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter. NOAA NCEI later judged the prediction wrong under its national-temperature comparison.
What is Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy rate?
There is no single universal rate. NOAA NCEI reports 30% over a recent 10-year comparison, NOAA lists 35% for its updated 2006–2025 ranking, and a 2021 study reports 52% using its separate criteria.
Why do Phil’s accuracy percentages differ?
The evaluations use different periods, scoring rules, and definitions of winter or spring. Always read a percentage with its source and method; the figures are not interchangeable.
Does Phil’s shadow really predict six more weeks of winter?
No. That is the traditional interpretation of the ceremony, not a reliable scientific forecast. Use official local forecasts for weather decisions.
The bottom line
Punxsutawney Phil’s accuracy depends on how a prediction is scored. NOAA’s current figures are 30% over a recent 10-year comparison and 35% in its updated 2006–2025 ranking; a 2021 study reports 52% under different criteria. These are not one settled lifetime score, and Phil should be enjoyed as a Groundhog Day tradition—not relied on as a weather forecaster.
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