The Tool Desk
Outbyte Driver Updater FREEScan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →The kagu, or cagou (Rhynochetos jubatus), is a flightless bird found only in New Caledonia and a cultural emblem of the territory. A 2024 report quoted scientist Jörn Theuerkauf saying its population in Farino had “probably tripled since 2017.” That is a qualified estimate for one locality—not evidence that the population across New Caledonia tripled.
What the reported tripling means
The statement concerns Farino, a park in New Caledonia. In The Guardian’s 2024 report, Theuerkauf described the population there as having “probably tripled since 2017” and said the park was approaching the maximum number of birds it could support. The word “probably” matters: the report conveys a researcher’s estimate, but does not publish an underlying annual census series for Farino.
The same article quoted park manager Jean-Marc Meriot saying the cagou population was expanding and doing very well. That is his assessment, not a separate quantified population result.
Three population figures that should not be combined
Reported numbers describe different places and use different methods. They are useful context, but they do not form one continuous population trend.
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| Place and period | Reported figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Farino, since 2017; reported in 2024 | Probably tripled | Theuerkauf’s qualified local estimate, as reported by The Guardian; the underlying annual count series is not included in that report. |
| Rivière Bleue, 1984, 2009 and 2019 | About 60; nearly 700; more than 1,000 | Park-level counts reported by Province Sud. The 2019 census also recorded a wider distribution within the park. |
| Grande Terre, published in 2025 | 2,295–4,985 | A study’s model-based island-wide estimate, not a direct census. Authors modelled suitable forest habitat, excluded areas treated as sink habitat near settlements, and applied density assumptions based on reserve counts. |
The Guardian also cited a rough estimate of about 2,000 birds in New Caledonia in 2024. Sud Tourisme gives an estimate of 1,500 on Grande Terre, but its page does not state a survey date. Neither figure should be treated as a directly comparable update to the 2025 model: geography, date, and method differ.
How conservation work supports recovery
Farino’s reported gains came amid intensive management after serious predator-related losses. The Guardian described a severe incident in 2017, further losses in 2020, a dog ban in the park, predator control, and closer monitoring with transmitters and nest cameras. Henri Bloc, quoted in the report, said he had followed 15 family groups and estimated roughly 1,200 kagu in the park at the time.
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At Rivière Bleue, Province Sud describes targeted predator actions alongside habitat management. The park has monitored kagu for more than forty years, according to the agency. These accounts point to a combination of protection, habitat work, and observation—not a single intervention that can be credited with the increase.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the kagu needs protection
Because kagu evolved on an island without the same mammalian predators found in many other places, introduced predators can pose particular risks. The 2025 study identifies dogs as the only known significant predator of kagu and notes that a study covering 2001–2016 found no evidence that feral cats or pigs preyed on them. Regional tourism material also lists cats, feral pigs, and deforestation among threats, but the evidence for predation is not equally established for each animal.
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Habitat also matters: the 2025 population estimate depends on where suitable forest remains and how many birds habitat can support. The kagu’s progress in managed areas is encouraging, but local recovery does not by itself establish the species’ status everywhere across New Caledonia.
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Sources and scope
- Province Sud reports the Rivière Bleue counts and management measures.
- The Guardian reported the Farino estimate and attributed it to Jörn Theuerkauf.
- The 2025 Journal of Ornithology paper provides the Grande Terre model-based estimate and explains its habitat and density assumptions.
- New Caledonia tourism information describes the kagu’s emblematic status and observation locations.
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