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A 2025 study estimates that energy flowing through bird and mammal communities in sub-Saharan Africa has fallen by more than one-third compared with historical levels. The finding is about the ecological work animals help power—not a count showing that one-third of Africa’s individual animals have vanished, and not electrical power.
What the study measured
Published online in Nature on 29 October 2025, “Energy flows reveal declining ecosystem functions by animals across Africa” estimates trophic energy flows through bird and mammal communities across sub-Saharan Africa. Trophic energy flow describes energy consumed by animal groups associated with ecological functions.
The authors used an ecosystem-energetics framework with biodiversity-intactness and species-density data to estimate energy flows against historical levels. This is a continent-scale synthesis and modeled estimate, not a new direct census at every location. The metric helps indicate how much energy moves through groups linked to functions; it does not directly measure every ecological function at each site.
How large is the estimated decline?
The authors estimate that energy flows through the studied animal groups remain at 64% of historical levels overall, with a 95% confidence interval of 54–74%. Put another way, the estimated decline is more than one-third. These percentages compare estimated energy flows with a historical baseline; they are not percentages of animals that have gone extinct or been counted missing.
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Estimates differ by land use
The estimated share of historical energy flows remaining varies substantially across land-use categories:
| Land-use category | Estimated energy flow remaining |
|---|---|
| Settlements | 27% of historical levels |
| Croplands | 41% of historical levels |
| Unprotected, untransformed lands | 67% of historical levels |
| Strict protected areas | 88% of historical levels |
These are study estimates, not a claim that every settlement, farm, unprotected area, or protected area has the same ecological condition. The comparison does show a broad contrast: estimated energy flows are lowest in settlements and highest in strict protected areas among the categories reported.
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Which animal groups and ecosystems show losses?
The overall figure combines different animal groups and ecological settings, so it does not describe a uniform decline everywhere.
- Large herbivores: the study estimates a 72% decline in their energy flows, with a 95% confidence interval of 61–85%.
- Other mammals: energy flows are estimated to have declined by about 29%.
- Birds: energy flows are likewise estimated to have declined by about 29%.
The paper also describes different patterns across biomes: losses associated with arboreal birds and primates in forests, terrestrial herbivores in grassy systems, and burrowing mammals in arid systems. It reports especially low intactness for functions associated with megafauna outside protected areas. These findings connect changes in animal communities to ecological roles, rather than showing that every species or role has declined by the same amount.
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The authors estimate that conversion to croplands and cities accounts for 25% of the total decline in energy flows. That identifies an important contribution, but it is not a full comparative ranking of land conversion against hunting, climate change, or other pressures. The reported estimate does not establish that land conversion alone explains the decline or isolate every driver experimentally.
Professor Yadvinder Malhi, director of the Leverhulme Centre for Nature Recovery at the University of Oxford, described the significance this way: “The loss of animal energy flow is not just an ecological story, it’s a planet Earth story which connects the fate of individual species to the functioning and stability of the biosphere itself.”
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