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Entry 791Filed under Breeding

Can Warming Make Gharial Populations Skew Female? What a Chambal Study Found

A Chambal River study predicted more female than male gharial hatchlings from nest temperatures, but researchers did not confirm hatchling sex or link the results to climate change.
3-minute read By Animalso Team

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A 2025 study of 17 gharial nests on India’s Chambal River predicted more female than male hatchlings—but researchers did not confirm the hatchlings’ sexes. The results raise a concern about nest temperatures, not proof that climate change has already made gharial populations female-biased.

What did the study find?

Sharma and colleagues monitored 17 wild gharial nests at Baroli and Nadigaon in Madhya Pradesh during three nesting seasons, from 2017 to 2019. They used 43 temperature data loggers placed at different nest depths, then modelled likely sex outcomes from temperatures during the thermosensitive period. The study appeared in Evolutionary Ecology in 2025 (paper DOI).

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The model estimated an average of one male for every 3.2 females among hatchlings from the monitored nests. More than 35% of those nests had temperatures associated with greater female production, and nearly one-third were predicted to produce all-female hatchlings. The constant-temperature-equivalent values reported for the critical sex-determining period ranged from 30.5°C to 34°C.

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These are modelled nest-level estimates, not direct counts of hatchling sex or a survey of the wider gharial population. The Wildlife Institute of India also lists the paper in its scientific publications.

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How can temperature affect gharial sex?

Gharials have temperature-dependent sex determination, with a female-male-female pattern: relatively low and relatively high incubation temperatures can favour females, while an intermediate range can favour males. In the 2025 study’s account, temperatures around 32°C can produce a high proportion of males; temperatures at or below 31.5°C and at or above 33.5°C favour females.

Those are study-specific reported thresholds, not a simple rule that every nest at a given temperature produces the same sex. Nest depth, moisture, sand conditions and temperature fluctuations all affect the thermal environment embryos experience.

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Why were the hatchlings’ sexes not confirmed?

The researchers inferred likely sex from nest-temperature records because reliably sexing very small gharial hatchlings is difficult. Lead author Surya P. Sharma told Scroll.in that long-term monitoring is needed until the animals are large enough for reliable sexing techniques. That means the study’s predicted female bias should not be reported as a measured hatchling ratio.

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Does this show climate change is making gharials female?

No. The Chambal study measured nest temperatures and modelled sex outcomes, but those results alone do not establish that anthropogenic climate change caused the temperatures or the predicted ratio. Nor do 17 nests at two sites establish a population-wide shift.

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A separate 2026 study of gharial populations, habitat and pressures across the Ganga River Basin raised warming-related sex-ratio changes as a possible concern. It explicitly said it did not measure nest-site incubation temperatures or hatchling sex ratios and therefore could not test that hypothesis directly (Frontiers in Conservation Science). Its basin-wide assessment and the 2025 Chambal nest study are different evidence: neither demonstrates a climate-caused population-wide female bias.

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What monitoring and conservation could help?

The immediate research need is to connect temperature records with reliable sex assessments over time at active nesting sites. The 2026 basin study recommends logging nest temperatures and periodically assessing hatchling sex ratios. Shading, moving nests or artificial incubation have been raised as possible measures to assess, not proven universal fixes; interventions would need site-specific evaluation.

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Conservation planning also considers habitat. In a separate Nepal project, WWF reports that 10 adult gharials—nine females and one male—were moved to the West Rapti River in Banke National Park. The site was selected partly for smaller temperature swings, sandy banks and lower human disturbance; WWF says the animals were tagged and monitored, and citizen scientists recorded sightings of at least five. This project provides context for habitat-based planning, not confirmation of the Chambal study’s predictions (WWF project account).

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