A 2022 study projects that the area classified as highly suitable for hijol (Barringtonia acutangula) across its Indo-Bangladesh study landscape could fall by 50.57% by 2050. That is a model projection about habitat suitability—not a count of trees already lost or a prediction that half the species’ trees will die.
What is hijol?
Hijol (Barringtonia acutangula) is a tree of riverbanks, freshwater swamp and lagoon edges, and seasonally flooded lowland plains. It is associated with floodplain forests in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin and can be locally dominant. Its habitat and uses connect it closely to life and livelihoods in floodplain communities.
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In Assam, branches are used in fish farming. Reports describe them as providing refuge for fish from predators, hindering illegal fishing, and offering surfaces where algae can grow. These are reported local uses; the available reporting does not quantify their effects on fishery yields or ecosystems. Researchers chose the species partly because of its socioeconomic importance to floodplain farmers, many of whom rely on fish farming, according to corresponding author Arun Jyoti Nath, as quoted by Mongabay India.
How will climate change affect hijol habitat?
Hazarika, Deka, Majumdar and Nath’s 2022 species-distribution modeling study projected a decline in the area of highly suitable habitat by 2050. Across its 2,450,577-square-kilometer Indo-Bangladesh study landscape, the model classified 199,063 square kilometers—8.12%—as highly suitable under current conditions, then projected a 50.57% reduction in that highly suitable area by 2050. The study’s results are recorded in its peer-reviewed publication and summarized in Mongabay India’s report.
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The model used 89 occurrence locations—57 in India and 32 in Bangladesh—and MaxEnt, a species-distribution modeling method, with bioclimatic and elevation variables. The strongest reported predictors included precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the coldest quarter, and precipitation in the driest period. This points to rainfall patterns as important to the modeled distribution; it does not, on its own, demonstrate the full chain from climate change to tree mortality at a particular site.
What the projections show for India and Bangladesh
The study projected different reductions in highly suitable habitat in the two countries. Both figures use the same 2050 horizon and measure modeled suitable area, not the number of trees expected to die.
| Geography | Modeled highly suitable area under current conditions | Projected reduction in highly suitable area by 2050 |
|---|---|---|
| India | 103,522 km² | 63.63% (65,868 km²) |
| Bangladesh | 95,541 km² | 36.43% (34,801 km²) |
The Government of India’s Biennial Transparency Report to the UNFCCC also repeats the 63.63% India projection and attributes it to Hazarika et al. (2022). That is a restatement of the study’s model result, not an independent measurement of habitat loss.
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What the numbers do—and do not—mean
“Highly suitable habitat” is a modeled category: places whose measured environmental conditions align with the species’ recorded distribution in the model. A projected reduction in that category is not equivalent to deforestation already observed, a census of current trees, or a certainty that every place leaving the category will become uninhabitable. The figures describe a modeled outcome for a future climate scenario at the study’s 2050 horizon.
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The study offers evidence that climate-related environmental change could affect where conditions are most suitable for hijol, especially as precipitation patterns shift. It does not establish how many trees will survive, how quickly local populations may respond, or whether other environmental factors and local conditions will offset or compound the modeled change.
Why the model should be read with care
Navendu Page, a scientist at the Wildlife Institute of India who was not part of the study, raised a question about the geographic coverage of the occurrence data. As reported by Mongabay India, he said the authors had missed occurrence locations in western South India and noted that resilience to a changing climate is difficult to predict. This is a relevant limitation, not proof that the model is wrong: a model’s projected range depends in part on the locations and environmental data used to build it.
The authors recommended that the International Union for Conservation of Nature assess hijol’s vulnerability. That recommendation should not be mistaken for an IUCN status listing; the sources cited here do not establish a newer assessment result.
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Hijol is part of floodplain landscapes used by people and wildlife, and its branches have practical roles in some local fish-farming systems. A shift in suitable climate conditions could therefore matter not only for the tree’s distribution but also for communities that use it. Ecologist Abhik Gupta, who was not associated with the study, described the question as significant because the species inhabits an important habitat zone in the Indian subcontinent, in comments reported by Mongabay India.
What conservation can take from the findings
The reporting says hijol disperses seeds during the flood season, and that seed mass and adequate moisture influence germination and seedling quality. Those details make moisture and flood-season conditions relevant considerations for propagation. They do not amount to a tested restoration protocol, nor do they show that planting alone can compensate for projected shifts in climate suitability.
The study’s results support paying attention to hijol within floodplain conservation and future vulnerability assessment. They do not prescribe a specific planting strategy or establish the outcomes of any intervention. Protecting existing habitat, improving knowledge of where the species occurs, and evaluating local conditions would require evidence beyond a regional suitability projection.
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