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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Possibly—but only indirectly, and only in a long-term modeled scenario. A 2025 study estimates that wolves could reduce red deer browsing enough to let native woodland expand in parts of the Scottish Highlands, storing an average of about 1.0 ± 0.1 million tonnes of CO₂ per year across four modeled areas. That is a projection, not a measured climate benefit or an approved reintroduction plan.
How wolves could affect woodland and carbon
Wolves would not remove greenhouse gases directly. The proposed effect runs through the food web: wolves prey on red deer; fewer deer, or less browsing pressure, could give tree seedlings a better chance to survive; and expanding native woodland could store carbon as it grows.
The 2025 study in Ecological Solutions and Evidence modeled this chain for four areas of the Scottish Highlands. Its results depend on estimates of deer population dynamics and each area’s potential for native woodland. They describe what could happen under the model’s assumptions, not a change observed after wolves were released.
What the study estimates—and what the figures mean
The study authors estimated that a wolf population of 167 ± 23 across four modeled areas covering 12,167 km² could bring red deer below the model’s browsing-suppression threshold in roughly 20–23 years. The authors set that threshold at fewer than four red deer per km², assuming browsing would then be low enough for natural tree colonisation. It is an assumption used in this analysis, not a universal ecological rule or a measured threshold for all of Scotland.
#1 Best Overall
| Modeled measure | Study estimate | How to interpret it |
|---|---|---|
| Areas included | Four areas; 12,167 km² in total | The scenario covers selected Highland areas, not all of Scotland. |
| Wolf population | 167 ± 23 | A model estimate across those areas, not a proposed release count. |
| Time to modeled deer threshold | About 20–23 years | Time to below four red deer per km² under the study’s assumptions. |
| Sequestration over 100 years | 102 ± 10 Mt CO₂ | A modeled total associated with woodland expansion across the four areas. |
| Average annual sequestration | 1.0 ± 0.1 Mt CO₂ per year | The 100-year modeled total expressed as an annual average; it is not an equal amount guaranteed each year. |
The authors say much of the modeled sequestration would occur after 2050, as woodland develops over time. They also compared the estimate with a UK woodland carbon-removal target, describing it as approximately 5% of that target. This is the paper’s comparison, not a current official assessment of Scotland’s climate policy.
What the model leaves out
The estimates are conditional, and several factors that could affect real outcomes were not included. The authors assume wolves remain within the reintroduction area. Their model also does not account for prey behavioural changes, shifts in nutrient cycling, or human-wolf conflicts. The results additionally depend on the modeled deer dynamics, the chosen deer threshold, and estimates of potential woodland.
Rank #2
- The study does not establish public consent, landowner acceptance, livestock impacts, or the costs of a reintroduction.
- It does not show that wolves would outperform or cost less than culling, fencing, or other active deer and woodland management.
- It does not demonstrate that wolf reintroduction would solve Scotland’s climate challenge. Scotland’s Environment Web describes a warming trend and changing rainfall patterns, including projections of warmer, drier typical summers, milder, wetter winters, and more intense heavy rainfall events.
Is Scotland planning to bring wolves back?
No. In a response published on 13 March 2025, the Scottish Government said: “The Scottish Government has no plans to reintroduce wolves or any other large carnivorous species into Scotland.” The modeled scenario is therefore separate from current government policy.
Any release of a new species in Scotland would require a NatureScot licence; releasing one without a licence is a criminal offence under Scottish Government policy. Applications are assessed under the Scottish Code for Conservation Translocations and involve consultation with the National Species Reintroduction Forum.
What this means for Scotland—and for wolves
The study offers a plausible ecological pathway worth considering: predators may reduce herbivore pressure, which can help woodland regenerate and store carbon. But its headline carbon figure is a century-long model estimate for four selected areas, not a near-term emissions cut or proof that reintroduction is practical. The research supports further consideration of the ecological scenario; it does not establish that Scotland should release wolves or that doing so is the best way to expand woodland.
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